BC NEWS, FORT ST. JOHN, by Shane Chevalier

Monday, July 22, 2024. Last updated on July 23, 2024 at 6:27 am

UPDATE – Severe weather has left the regions after a very active evening and overnight. The Quesnel region saw quite a bit of active weather and Prince George had a minor windstorm during the overnight which brought some much needed rain.

For the BC Peace region, thunderstorm activity was not as bad during the overnight but earlier in the evening a severe line of cells moved into the South Peace, near Chetwynd and Tumbler Ridge, also moved into the Hudson’s Hope area before moving up towards the Yukon.

More thunderstorm activity is in the forecast for Wednesday as more unstable air moves in.

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There is potential for severe weather once again for the BC Peace region as a low pressure system is moving into the region this evening…

Thunderstorms moved into the region during the overnight on Monday in the North Peace, bringing with it intense lightning and rain to the region. Due to the rainfall during the overnight in Fort St. John, humidity levels have increased the “feel like” daytime temperature 6 degrees higher than the air temperature. The dew point is also pretty high in Fort St. John and when the dew is in the high teen digits, instability of severe nature is going to happen when cooler weather begins to move in. With the smoke, thunderstorm clouds are impossible to see in the sky and a darkening sky when it is smoke filled is tricky to determine.

For this evening, 20 to 30 mm of rain is expected to fall in a short period of time in the Fort St. John area. Strong wind gusts and downbursts of wind could also be on the radar this evening and overnight for much of BC North, including Prince George. Rain and thunderstorm activity is in the forecast for most of the Central Interior and BC North through the overnight. Remember to check those weather apps, as weather warnings will be issued, even during the overnight.

This is typical Alberta weather. Daytime heating and then evening thunderstorms. These pattern changes have become the norm for the BC Peace during heat waves as the same type of patterns have occurred in 2023 and 2021 following the intense heat dome in June.

Also, a Flood Watch has been issued for local rivers in BC North. Below is the message from the River Forecast Centre…

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The River Forecast Centre is issuing a Flood Watch for Northern B.C. including:

• Northwest basins
• Tributaries of the Stikine River
• Tributaries of the Liard River
• Tributaries of the Peace River, in particular the Williston Lake and Northern Rockies
  basins
• Includes tributaries around Atlin, Dease Lake, Muncho Lake, Fort Nelson and
  surrounding areas

Weather Synopsis:
A wrap-around low-pressure system is expected to bring intense thunderstorms to the Peace and Northern Rockies areas today followed by widespread moderate to heavy rainfall to northern B.C. Tuesday into Wednesday.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) meteorological model forecasts indicate total rainfall amounts upward of 100 mm for this event with heavy localized short-duration rainfall.

Multiple weather models are currently providing similar predictions of storm track and rainfall amounts, strengthening forecast confidence, although local conditions may be highly variable. The precipitation is expected to ease starting later Wednesday. River Conditions: The current river levels are relatively low.

The latest hydrological modeling indicates that rivers, especially small stream systems, are expected to rise significantly in response to the forecast rainfall. Flows are expected to rise starting Tuesday with peak flows through midweek.

Current modeling indicates some small tributaries are forecast to reach above 5- to 10-year return period levels midweek. However, high uncertainty in forecast rainfall and watershed responses bring uncertainty in location and magnitude of forecast peak flows.

Current river levels are low in most areas; conditions are expected to be dynamic throughout the week with periods of rapid river rises. Fast-flowing rivers pose increased risk to life safety.