FEATURED by: Shane Chevalier

Tuesday, July 18, 2023. Last updated on July 27, 2023.

(July 27) UPDATE – Cooler, summer temperatures will remain until at least the beginning of August 2023. That includes rain showers and minor thunderstorms. Expect temperatures in the Central Interior up to the BC Peace to be between 20 and 25 degrees.

As we progress into August, temperatures are expected to increase slightly but nothing too crazy. Temperatures could be between 22 and 27 degrees, typical August weather.

(July 18, 2023) Before jumping right into the weather today I would like to share with you on how PJXM collects weather data that is shared with you.

Here at PJXM News I like to delve into the weather stats and fanatics quite a bit, it is something I enjoy doing each and every day and a lot of PJXM members know that weather and road reports have been the heart of PJXM News since it began in 2009. The time is taken each and every day to go over weather info Environment Canada provides so the public can plan a few days in advance but not too far in advance.

PJXM uses many weather sources outside Environment Canada to put out a final report of upcoming weather statement reports, including using the European Weather Model (ECMWF) in conjunction with the North American Mesoscale Forecast system. Without those two entities, there would be no long range forecasting models. Understanding the charts and graphics is a whole new world but once it is understood it can be a reliable source.

PJXM also relies on weather sources from Alaska when it comes to dealing with snow reports, which is looked at every single day. A lot of our weather in British Columbia is influenced by what is coming down from Alaska or coming up from California. That’s how I knew snow was coming in June despite all the summer heat we had experienced. Graphics from Environment Canada suggested snow in the mountain ranges for mid June and so did the Alaskan source, which was out of the ordinary but not uncommon for that particular month because it is still spring.

June is typically a rainy/cool month. This past May and June were dominated by high pressure weather systems with very little recovery from the low pressure weather systems that bring rain and cool temperatures. That type of forecasting led experts to believe it would carry on for the entire summer but long range forecasting only goes so far to begin with, the rest is made up of computer forecast probabilities by plunking in data to present extended long range forecasts for up to 90 days.

The weather headlines since May have either been wildfires and heat or a combination of both but a change could be coming for the remainder of July, which might baffle the weather experts who have been saying “heat, heat, and more heat is on the way.” When the snow fell in BC and Alberta in June, it surprised the senior meteorologists at Environment Canada and the tune was changed.

Now the upcoming temperature forecast for remainder of July seems to be a bit normal and could range from 20 degrees up to around 25 degrees with night time lows averaging around 10 degrees. Rain is also in the forecast.

It is way too early to tell what August has in store for British Columbia and by then El Nino will be getting ready to go. El Nino could bring warmth to our winter forecast as it did in 2014, 2015 and 2016, when it rained in December instead of accumulating snow. El Nino led to a strong wildfire season in 2017 and 2018 because of how dry it was in the spring.

As always, this story will be updated if anything changes as long range forecasts typically do because of the jetstream and no, the jetstream has nothing to do with jets or any type of aircraft so no need to que the doomsday slayers.